By Our Staff Reporter
MUMBAI, OCT. 09
The 2018-19 cotton crop is estimated at 348 lakh bales crop, according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). This is just first estimation of crop, this may change by 3% to 4% plus or minus according to October and November climatic condition, informed Mr. Mr. Atul Ganatra, President, CAI.
Giving details of the cotton scenario at the Aurangabad cotton conference, Mr. Ganatra noted that last season in April month cotton rates were around Rs. 40,000 and Indian cotton was very cheap and best available.
Today, Indian Rupee has depreciated by almost 13% i.e. from 64 to 74 which is almost Rs. 5,500 per candy so last year’s rate of Rs.40,000 and today’s current market rate of Rs.45,500/- are same for the foreign buyers. Thus, again today India cotton is cheapest in the world, particularly North cotton is very very cheap. If our Indian mills are not buying cotton in time this year then there are huge chances of big export from India again this year, he pointed out.
With regard to increasing cotton crop, Mr. Ganatra said that India should focus on increasing cotton yield and not in increasing cotton sowing area. Over the last 3 to 4 years, India has not been able to increase our yield. It is not that India is not trying to increase the yield.
Indian farmers are working very hard to increase the yield but the problem is in India only 25% area is irrigated land and more than 75% area depends on rain water and unfortunately last 2, 3 years, also this year rains are less and not on time. This is the main reason our yields are reducing, he emphasised.
On export front, Mr. Ganatra informed that India is expecting good demand from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh and Pakistan, but the big question is do we have that much surplus cotton to do that much big export and fulfill the demand of all these countries.
The reports coming from the world market for coming season most of the cotton countries crops are going to reduce in countries like USA, China, Pakistan, Australia and India. One side world’s cotton production is getting reduced and same time the world’s cotton consumption is increasing day by day. Due to crude rate gone up Polyester Staple Fiber (PSF) price has gone up 13.50 per kg in last 1 month alone, due to this the mills who wanted to shift from cotton to PSF is now not possible, he pointed out.
On MSP issue, Mr. Ganatra said that looking to MSP of Rs. 5,450 the cotton cost will be around Rs. 44,000 to Rs. 47,000 per candy state wise for 29 mm cotton. Looking to MSP, CCI can buy around 75 lakh bales this year. Looking to all these in detail CAI believes that next year cotton rates will be maintained in between Rs. 44,000 to Rs. 56,000 spot.
During the conference, Mr. Ganatra shared the details of 5 cotton growing states which are facing problems as on today and which were as under: 1. Maximum problem this year is in Gujarat. The state which is giving highest cotton production in India to us is facing over all 30% rain deficit and in Gujarat in 9 cotton growing districts the rain deficit is more than 50%. 3 districts are already announced drought where the rain deficit is around 75% yield in Gujarat is likely to reduce drastically.
Hence, CAI has reduced 15 lakh bales production in Gujarat i.e. 90 lakh bales compare to last year’s 105 lakh bales. Actually 90% Gujarat cotton trade people told us Gujarat crop size is only 65 to 70 lakh bales but we trust, God will send rain to Gujarat and crop will come 90 lakh bales. If no rain in October month in Gujarat then next month CAI will revise and reduce again the Gujarat crop size.
2. Marathawada – The largest cotton growing area in Maharashtra is also facing same type of situation like Gujarat and yield in Marathawada is likely to reduce drastically because of rain deficit. Due to Marahtawada problem we have reduced Maharashtra crop by 2 lakh bales i.e. 81 lakh bales from last year’s 83 lakh bales.
Actually Maharashtra crop size is 90 to 95 lakh bales and Gujarat crop size is 75 lakh bales but from Maharashtra 10 to 15 lakh bales raw cotton is going to Gujarat that is why CAI has taken pressing figures of Gujarat 90 lakh bales and Maharashtra 81 lakh bales.
3. Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh – stations like Adoni, Raichur, Bijapur, Bellari are also big rain deficit areas but CAI has not reduced its crop position much in these areas. It has reduced only 1 to 2 lakh bales as CAI wants to wait and see how South West monsoon is going to benefit or not. 4. This year CAI is expecting good crop of around 65 lakh bales in North.
Though North sowing area is reduced by approximately 1 lakh hectare, but CAI is expecting that yield are going to improve but last week 3 days untimely heavy rains at the time of harvesting has cut down the excess yield expectations. Then, too CAI has taken on a positive note. CAI has taken North crop size 58 lakh bales compare to last year’s 56 lakh bales. (Source: Tecoya Trend)