May 30 2013

It was a bad week on the charts. Old-crop sales have been at 90% for months; saving the last 10% as “gambling stocks.” But since you have the option to buy back futures or options if fundamentals turn bullish, it’s a risky and costly gamble to hang on to inventory any longer.

Complete old-crop sales now. New crop sales are at 45% on previous advice and catch-up sales are advised if not. This week’s planting progress report showed 59% of the crop is planted, down 10 pts. from the 5-yr average, but closing the gap. Last week only 39% was planted and 13 pts. below the 5-year average.

Chart action is quite negative. On the weekly chart, futures took out last month’s low and completed what technicians call a 1-2-3 topping action, opening up new downside risk to last fall’s highs in the 75-77.50 range. Renewed concern about demand potential, particularly from China with its enormous stockpiles, are a constant weight on prices.

Weather-wise, forecasts frequently promise some relief for still-parched areas of Texas, but usually fall short. Traders seem to pay more attention to the forecasts than what actually falls. That, by definition, reveals an underlying bearish bias summed up as “When in doubt, sell.”

Furthermore, there are especially good forecasts for the driest parts of Texas in this afternoon’s updates. Confidence is higher than in similar forecasts the past couple of weeks. (Source: