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DTN Cotton Close

Cotton Remains Under Bear Paws

May 23, 2023

The cotton market was unable to ward off bearish fundamentals, such as a strong U.S. dollar and the G-7's desire to adjust the Western/China economic ties.

The cotton market was unable to ward off bearish fundamentals, such as a strong U.S. dollar and the G-7's desire to adjust the Western/China economic ties.

The next meeting of the Federal Reserve is on June 14, and while there is large consensus that the central bank will not raise rates, that number is waning. To that end, as recently as Monday, a couple of Fed Governors openly indicated that more rate hikes may be in the offing to discourage inflation. 

China has responded to the G-7 communique, by accusing the G-7 nations of collaborating to "smear and attack" China. Additionally, Beijing summoned the Japanese ambassador to register an official protest, and then warned the UK to stop "slandering" the country to avoid further damage to bilateral relations. Chinese regulators also restricted U.S. chipmaker, Micron Technology, from being utilized in its infrastructure rebuild.

USDA issued its planting progress numbers. The data showed that the nation's crop stands at 45% planted, versus a five-year average of 50%. Specifically, Texas is 35% complete, compared to its average of 43%, while Georgia is 51% done, versus its average of 57%.

Weather-wise, the Texas forecast for the next five days shows the possibility of an inch of rain, while the six- to 10- and the eight- to 14-day models indicated above-normal precipitation. Supposedly, if weather analysts are correct about an El Nino pattern, then Texas to Georgia should be unduly wet this year.

There are 23 days till the expiration of July options. The contract will enter delivery on June 26.

Tuesday, July settled at 84.35 cents, down 0.97 cent and December 2023 ended at 82.44 cents, 0.94 cent lower. Estimated volume was 32,660 contracts.

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