June-2025
COTTON: The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet is revised to show lower production, beginning stocks and ending stocks, with consumption, imports, and exports unchanged from last month. Harvested area is lowered 2 percent to 8.19 million acres following extensive rainfall and delayed planting in the Delta. The national average yield for 2025/26 is reduced more than 1 percent from last month to 820 pounds per harvested acre, also because of the conditions in the Delta. As a result, the production forecast is reduced 500,000 bales to 14.0 million, below the 14.4 million bales produced in 2024/25 and the second smallest crop in the past decade. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 400,000 bales following a corresponding increase in projected exports for 2024/25. As a result, 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 900,000 bales to 4.3 million, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 30.3 percent. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 is unchanged this month at 62 cents per pound.
For the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, beginning and ending stocks, and world trade are all revised downward. World production is lowered over 800,000 bales as a 1-million bale increase for China is more than offset by reductions for India, the United States, and Pakistan. Consumption is reduced over 300,000 bales for 2025/26 as an increase for Egypt is more than offset by reductions for India, Turkey and Bangladesh, with small changes elsewhere. Revisions to trade are largely offsetting as global exports are lowered 40,000 bales. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are lowered over 1.1 million bales, largely reflecting a 1-million reduction in India’s 2024/25 crop. As a result, global ending stocks for 2025/26 are lowered nearly 1.6 million bales, primarily reflecting the reduction in beginning stocks and a decrease in production that exceeds the decrease in consumption.
