Aug-2025
COTTON: The 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet for August reflects lower production, exports,nd beginning and ending stocks, along with unchanged consumption and imports compared to last month. Planted area is lowered 8 percent to 9.3 million acres based on the NASS August Crop Production report. Harvested area is reduced 15 percent to 7.4 million acres as dryness in the Southwest raises the expected national abandonment rate from 14 percent to 21 percent. The national average yield for 2025/26 is raised over 6 percent to 862 pounds per harvested acre as higher abandonment in the Southwest results in the harvest of fewer lower-yielding dryland acres. The production forecast is reduced to 13.2 million bales, almost 1.4 million bales below the July forecast and 1.2 million bales lower than 2024/25. Exports are reduced 500,000 bales because of the smaller crop. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced 100,000 bales following a corresponding increase in exports for 2024/25. As a result of these revisions, ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 3.6 million bales, down 1 million from last month, for a stocks-to-use ratio of 26.3 percent. With tighter domestic supplies, the projected season-average upland price for 2025/26 is raised this month to 64 cents per pound.
In the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production, consumption, trade, and beginning and ending stocks are all lowered compared to last month. World production is forecast 1.8 million bales lower as a result of reductions for the United States, Sudan, Uzbekistan, and Mali that more than offset a larger crop in China. The forecast for world consumption is reduced over 100,000 bales as lower mill use in India, Bangladesh, and Turkey more than offsets an increase for China. World trade is reduced 1.1 million bales with projected exports lowered for the United States, Sudan, Mali, and small changes elsewhere. Beginning stocks for 2025/26 are reduced over 1.7 million bales, largely reflecting higher 2024/25 consumption in China and Brazil. With lower beginning stocks and production, ending stocks for 2025/26 are reduced by over 3.4 million bales.
