Jul-2026
COTTON: The July outlook for 2026/27 U.S. cotton forecasts higher production and ending stocks, with beginning stocks, consumption, imports and exports unchanged from last month. U.S. all-cotton production is raised 400,000 bales to 13.7 million as planted area is estimated at 9.85 million acres based on the June Acreage report, up 2 percent from last month. Harvested area also is projected 2-percent higher at 7.54 million acres assuming a 10-year average abandonment rate for all regions. The national average yield is raised 6 pounds to 872 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting the increased area in the Southeast and Delta and lower area in the Southwest in the June Acreage report. With higher production and no changes to offtake, ending stocks are raised 400,000 bales to 4.1 million for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 29.5 percent. The projected season-average price is unchanged at 73 cents per pound.
There are no changes to supply and demand categories in the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet this month. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is lowered half a cent to 62.5 cents per pound.
World cotton supply for 2026/27 is raised 300,000 bales as higher production more than offsets a reduction in beginning stocks. The forecast for global cotton production is raised 1.2 million bales to 117.3 million with bigger crops expected for Brazil, the United States, Turkey, and Central Asia. Consumption is raised slightly to 122.0 million bales with an increase in Vietnam mill use slightly offset by a small reduction for Azerbaijan. Trade is virtually unchanged from last month at 43.3 million bales. With the increase in global supplies exceeding the growth in consumption, ending stocks for 2026/27 are increased slightly to 71.2 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 58.4 percent.
For 2025/26, world production is lowered by 750,000 bales following a like reduction for Brazil. Global consumption is reduced modestly to 120.0 million bales as a reduction for Pakistan more than offsets an increase for Vietnam, with small changes elsewhere. Exports are raised 1 percent, primarily on higher shipments by Brazil, and small changes for a few other countries. Ending stocks are reduced by about 900,000 bales, mostly due to the smaller Brazilian crop, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 63.1 percent.
