Aug-2026
COTTON: The 2026/27 U.S. cotton balance sheet for August projects lower production and ending stocks compared to last month, while beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and imports are unchanged. U.S. all-cotton production is forecast at 13.61 million bales based on the NASS August Crop Production report. This is over 90,000 bales below the July projection and almost 300,000 bales smaller than the 2025/26 crop. Planted area is raised over 600,000 acres to 10.47 million, up 6 percent from the June Acreage report. The forecast for harvested area is increased to 8.19 million acres, over 8 percent higher than last month. The national average yield is lowered 74 pounds to 798 pounds per harvested acre as projected yields for many States are lower than in 2025/26. With the smaller crop, projected ending stocks are reduced to 4.00 million bales, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 28.8 percent. The projected season-average farm price is raised 2 cents to 75 cents per pound.
There are no changes to supply and demand in the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet this month. The 2025/26 season-average farm price is lowered 1 cent to 61.5 cents per pound.
World cotton supply for 2026/27 is lowered almost 550,000 bales as the reduction in beginning stocks exceeds the increase in production. Global cotton production is projected over 370,000 bales higher than last month to 117.6 million as larger crops in Brazil, Greece, and Turkey more than offset a reduction for the United States, with small changes elsewhere. Consumption is raised almost 1.0 million bales to 122.9 million as increases for China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia more than offset reductions for Bangladesh and Egypt. Trade is raised nearly 500,000 bales to 43.8 million with higher exports from Brazil and higher imports by India, Vietnam, and Indonesia. With these changes, ending stocks for 2026/27 are reduced by over 1.5 million bales to 69.7 million, resulting in a stocks-to-use ratio of 56.7 percent.
For 2025/26, world production is raised marginally while consumption is increased by over 900,000 bales based on higher estimated mill use by China, India, Vietnam, and Indonesia, with small changes elsewhere. Exports are raised over 720,000 bales based on trade data for Brazil, Greece, India, and Turkey, and small changes for a few other countries. Ending stocks are reduced by over 900,000 bales, mostly due to reductions for India, China, and Brazil, lowering the stocks-to-use ratio to 61.9 percent.
