CAI INCREASES ITS COTTON PRESSING ESTIMATE FOR 2023-24
COTTON SEASON TO 323.02 LAKH BALES
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Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its August estimate of the cotton pressing numbers for 2023-24 season, which began on 1st October 2023. Based on input received from the members of 11 cotton growing state associations and other trade sources, CAI has estimated its cotton pressing figures for 2023-24 season at 323.02 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 338.97 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each). The State-wise break-up of the Cotton pressing numbers as well as Balance Sheet for the season with the corresponding data for the previous crop year are enclosed.
The total cotton supply till end of August 2024 is estimated at 362.18 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 380.07 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) which consists of the pressings of 319.08 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 334.84 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each), imports of 14.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.90 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) and the opening stock estimated by the CAI at 28.90 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 30.33 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) at the beginning of the season.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption upto the end of August 2024 at 291.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 305.37 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) while the export shipments upto 31st August 2024 are estimated by the CAI at 27 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 28.33 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each). Stock at the end of August 2024 is estimated at 44.18 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 46.36 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) including 26.25 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 27.55 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) with textile mills which is over 30 days consumption and the remaining 17.93 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 18.82 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) with CCI, Maharashtra Federation and others (MNCs, MCX, traders, ginners, etc.) including cotton sold but not delivered.
The CAI has estimated its total cotton supply till end of the cotton season 2023-24 (i.e. upto 30th September 2024) at 368.32 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 386.51 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each). The total cotton supply consists of the opening stock of 28.90 lakh bales (equivalent to 30.33 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) at the beginning of 2023-24 season on 1st October 2023, cotton pressing numbers estimated for the season at 323.02 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 338.97 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) and imports for the season estimated at the same level i.e. 16.40 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 17.21 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each).
The CAI has increased its estimate of cotton pressing for 2023-24 season to 323.02 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 338.97 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) from its previous estimate of 317.70 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 333.39 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each). The changes made in the state-wise cotton pressing estimates compared to those estimated previously are given below: -
(in lakh bales of 170 kgs. each)
|
State |
Increase (+) / Decrease (-) |
|
Haryana |
+0.25 |
|
Lower Rajasthan |
-0.25 |
|
Gujarat |
+2.00 |
|
Maharashtra |
+3.50 |
|
Andhra Pradesh |
+0.50 |
|
Karnataka |
+0.50 |
|
Tamil Nadu |
-1.25 |
|
Orissa |
+0.07 |
|
TOTAL |
+5.32 |
Our estimated pressing numbers for 2023-24 crop year has gone up by 28 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each i.e. from 295 lakh bales estimated in October 2023 to 323 lakh bales estimated now in September 2024.
This increase of 28 lakh bales in our pressing estimate is on account of carry-forward stock of kapas by farmers from the previous cotton season 2022-23 which we have miss-calculated. This carried forward stock from previous season has been added to the pressing numbers of current crop year.
The domestic consumption estimated by the CAI is the same as estimated previously i.e. 317 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 332.65 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each). The exports for the season 2023-24 estimated by the CAI are 28.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 29.38 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) as against 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.27 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) estimated for 2022-23 season.
SALIENT FEATURES OF THE CAI CROP COMMITTEE MEETING HELD ON 11TH SEPTEMBER 2024
The Crop Committee of the Cotton Association of India (CAI) held its meeting on Wednesday, the 11th September 2024 virtually, which was attended by 20 members representing various cotton growing regions of the country. Based on the input given by the representatives of each state association, the CAI Crop Committee has estimated total cotton pressing numbers for 2023-24 season and has also drawn cotton balance sheet for 2023-24 season.
The following are the salient features of the CAI crop report: -
1. CONSUMPTION
The CAI has maintained cotton consumption for 2023-24 season at 317 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 332.65 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) i.e. same as estimated previously.
Upto 31st August 2024, the consumption is estimated at 291.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 305.37 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each).
2. COTTON PRESSING
As per the crop report submitted by upcountry associations and trade sources at the meeting of the CAI Crop Committee, the Committee has estimated its cotton pressing figures at 323.02 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 338.97 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each).
The Committee members will have a close watch on the pressing numbers of cotton in the month of September 2024 and if any addition or reduction is required to be made in the pressing numbers, the same will be made in the CAI report.
3. IMPORTS
The estimates of cotton imports into India during 2023-24 season are also maintained at the same level as estimated earlier i.e. at 16.40 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 17.21 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) as against 12.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 13.12 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) estimated for last season. The cotton imports estimated for the ongoing crop year 2023-24 are higher by 3.90 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each compared to last year.
Upto 31st August 2024, about 14.20 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 14.90 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) are estimated to have arrived the Indian Ports.
4. EXPORTS
The Committee has estimated its cotton exports estimate at 28.00 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 29.38 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each). The cotton exports for 2023-24 crop year are estimated to be higher by 12.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each as against 15.50 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 16.27 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) estimated for the last season.
Upto 31st August 2024, about 27 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 28.33 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) are estimated to have been shipped from India.
5. CLOSING STOCK AS AT 30TH SEPTEMBER 2024
The closing stock as on 30th September 2024 is estimated at 23.32 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 24.47 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) as against 28.90 lakh bales of 170 kgs. each (equivalent to 30.33 lakh running bales of 162 kgs. each) in last year.
Mumbai Atul S. Ganatra
Date: 12th September 2024 President
