May-2025
COTTON: The forecast for 2025/26 U.S. cotton shows a small increase in production, higher exports,beginning and ending stocks, and unchanged consumption compared to 2024/25. Planted area is expected to be 9.87 million acres based on the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. With recent precipitation in the Southwest, abandonment is projected to be lower than average resulting in a U.S. harvested area of 8.37 million acres, higher than the 7.81 million harvested in 2024/25. The national average yield for 2025/26 is projected at 832 pounds per harvested acre, below last year’s 886 pounds, based on regionally weighted 5-year averages. Production is projected to be 14.50 million bales, slightly above the 14.41 million bales produced in 2024/25. Exports are projected to rebound to 12.50 million bales, up from 11.10 million, because of larger beginning stocks and higher global import demand. Ending stocks are forecast to be 400,000 bales higher at 5.20 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 36.6 percent. The projected season-average price for 2025/26 is 62 cents per pound.
The 2024/25 balance sheet for U.S. cotton reflects a 200,000-bale increase in projected exports to 11.10 million and a crop of 14.41 million bales based on NASS’s final estimate of 2024/25 U.S. cotton production. As a result, ending stocks for 2024/25 are reduced to 4.80 million bales. The projected 2024/25 season-average price remains unchanged at 63 cents per pound.
World supply for 2025/26 is up approximately 1.5 percent from 2024/25 as the increase in beginning stocks exceeds the decline in production. Global consumption is up 1.2 percent to 118.08 million bales as increases in Bangladesh, India, Turkey, and Vietnam (collectively +1.40 million bales) more than offset a 500,000-bale decline in China, with smaller changes elsewhere. Global trade is projected to be over 5 percent higher to 44.83 million bales as both the United States and Brazil each increase exports by over 1 million bales. Ending stocks are essentially unchanged from 2024/25 at 78.38 million bales.
In the 2024/25 world balance sheet, production, consumption, and trade are revised upward from their April forecasts with beginning stocks virtually unchanged and ending stocks revised downward. Because of excellent early harvest yields, Australia’s projected crop is raised 200,000 bales, accounting for much of the increase in production. Consumption and imports are each raised 300,000 bales for both Pakistan and Vietnam while imports by China are reduced 500,000 bales. As a result, ending stocks are reduced over 450,000 bales to 78.40 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 67.1 percent.
