Feb-2026
COTTON: Changes to the 2025/26 U.S. cotton balance sheet are minimal this month with the export projection reduced 200,000 bales on lagging sales and ending stocks raised by the same amount for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 32 percent. Production, beginning stocks, and mill use are unchanged. The projected 2025/26 season average upland farm price is lowered 1 cent to 60 cents per pound.
In the 2025/26 world cotton balance sheet, production and ending stocks are raised while consumption and trade are reduced. The estimate of 2025/26 global production is raised 425,000 bales following increases for China and South Africa that are partially offset by reductions for Argentina and Mexico. Global consumption is lowered 200,000 bales with a 100,000-bale reduction for Pakistan and small reductions elsewhere. The estimate for world exports is reduced 60,000 bales as the changes in U.S. and Australian exports exactly offset, and small changes are made for several countries. Back-year revisions for Mali, Afghanistan, and Mexico result in a negligible decline in 2025/26 beginning stocks. With these changes, global ending stocks for 2025/26 increase by almost 630,000 bales to 75.1 million, for an ending stocks-to-use ratio of 63 percent.
