May-2024
COTTON: The U.S. cotton projections for 2024/25 include a larger crop as planted area is slightly higher and abandonment is projected at less than half the rate realized in 2023/24. Production is forecast at 16.0 million bales, based on 10.67 million planted acres as indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report, with harvested area expected to rise 2.7 million acres year over year to 9.1 million. U.S. abandonment is projected below the 10-year average reflecting moisture conditions to date in the Southwest. Despite a lower national yield, production is forecast nearly 4 million bales larger. Although beginning stocks are lower, 2024/25 total supplies are projected 12 percent higher. Exports are expected to rise 700,000 bales due to increased supplies and higher world trade, while U.S. mill use is expected to rise 100,000 bales. At 3.7 million bales, 2024/25 U.S. ending stocks are projected 1.3 million bales above the relatively low 2023/24 level. The marketing year average upland farm price is projected at 74 cents per pound, 2 cents below the previous year.
For 2023/24, final U.S. cotton production is estimated at 12.1 million bales. Exports are unchanged, with mill use increased slightly due to activity to date. Ending stocks are estimated lower at 2.4 million bales, while the projected season-average price is unchanged.
Global supplies in 2024/25 are projected above a year earlier, as beginning stocks are unchanged and combine with a 5.4-million-bale increase in production. Consumption is projected up 3 percent year to year, and ending stocks are expected to rise as well. Production is expected to rise nearly 5 percent in 2024/25 as both global area and yield are expected to rise. Larger crops in Brazil, the United States, and Turkey more than offset smaller crops in China and India. Greater global supplies are expected to increase use and world trade to a 4-year high. As production outpaces consumption growth, global ending stocks are projected up 2.5 million bales to 83.0 million.
The global 2023/24 estimates show higher production and consumption compared with the previous month. Australia’s crop is increased by 200,000 bales and India’s by 500,000. Increased use in China and India more than offsets lower use in Bangladesh, Brazil, Pakistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan. Global ending stocks are lowered 2.6 million bales to 80.5 million, mostly due to historical revisions to Brazil and India consumption.
